The pitch that put panels on nearly a third of Australian roofs had two halves to it. Generate your own power during the day, and sell whatever you do not use back to the grid at a rate that makes the whole thing pay for itself.
The first half still works exactly as advertised. The second half has quietly fallen apart, and most households have not looked closely enough at a recent bill to notice.
The numbers moved a long way
Early adopters signed up to schemes paying as much as 44 cents per kilowatt hour for exported power. Those legacy arrangements are winding up by 2028, and nothing remotely like them exists for anyone signing up today.
Current feed-in tariffs around the country sit somewhere between three and ten cents, depending on your state, retailer and plan. Grid electricity, meanwhile, costs most households somewhere in the range of thirty to thirty five cents to buy. Over the past decade feed-in rates have roughly halved while retail prices have roughly doubled.
The direction of travel is not subtle. Victoria scrapped its minimum feed-in tariff on 1 July 2025, joining South Australia, the ACT and south-east Queensland in leaving the rate entirely to the market. EnergyAustralia has flagged a move to three cents from 31 July 2026.
Which is why solar and battery Adelaide packages, and their equivalents in every other capital, are now routinely quoted as one purchase rather than two separate decisions made years apart.
This is not retailer villainy
It is arithmetic. Australia has passed 4.2 million solar installations, and close to one in three homes now has panels on the roof.
All of those systems generate at the same time. Sunny, still, the middle of the day, precisely when demand is at its lowest. The grid ends up with an enormous surplus of electricity at noon that almost nobody wants, and prices behave accordingly. Your exported kilowatt hour is not worth much because several million other households are trying to sell the identical product at the identical moment.
South Australia got there first
If you want to see where the rest of the country is heading, look at Adelaide.
South Australia has the highest rooftop solar penetration in the nation, which means it hit the saturation problem earliest. Feed-in tariffs there typically land somewhere around five to eight cents. There is no state mandated minimum, so rates are set entirely by retailers, and several plans drop to as little as one cent or zero once you pass a modest daily export cap.
More tellingly, SA Power Networks now applies a charge on exports during the middle of the day, roughly between 10am and 4pm. Read that twice. In South Australia it is possible to pay for the privilege of giving your surplus power away at exactly the hour your panels are working hardest.
That is not a South Australian quirk. It is a preview.
What it does to the maths
Put the two figures beside each other. Roughly five cents for a kilowatt hour you export. Roughly thirty cents for a kilowatt hour you buy back four hours later.
That gap, somewhere near six to one, is the entire modern case for storage. Every unit you manage to keep and use yourself is worth about six times what you would have received for sending it away.
It also reframes what rooftop solar is for. A decade ago it was a generation decision, and the goal was to make as much power as possible. Today it is a self-consumption decision, and the goal is to use as much of your own production as you can. A battery is simply the mechanism for consuming your own solar after the sun sets, which is when most households actually use electricity.
The rebate, briefly
The federal Cheaper Home Batteries Program has run since July 2025 and covers roughly thirty percent of installed battery cost. It works through Small-scale Technology Certificates, which sounds complicated but means very little to you in practice. Your installer handles it and the discount comes off the quote. There is no form and no waiting for a refund.
Two things changed on 1 May 2026. The discount now steps down every six months rather than annually, on a path running through to 2030. And the full rate only applies to the first 14 kilowatt hours of capacity, tapering beyond that.
The practical translation is that the scheme now rewards buying the right size rather than the biggest size. That is a meaningful shift from the advice circulating last year.
Two numbers worth finding
If you already have panels, you can work out most of your position from your own data.
The first is your export rate and how much you actually export each day. Multiply them out. That is the value you are currently handing over, and for many households with a decent system it is a genuinely deflating figure.
The second is how much electricity you use between sunset and sunrise. Most retailer apps and smart meter portals will break consumption down by time of day. That evening and overnight block is precisely what a battery would displace, and it is usually smaller than people expect.
Those two numbers between them will tell you more than any brochure. One shows what you are losing. The other shows what you could realistically recover.
The shift in one line
Rooftop solar was sold to Australians as a way of generating electricity. Somewhere in the last few years, without much announcement, it became a way of keeping it instead.
The panels have not changed. The economics around them have, and the households getting the most out of their systems now are the ones who noticed.